Today’s special market report is dedicated to WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates), a market report of the United States Department of Agriculture.
The WASDE special report generated by AGRIColumn is only an interpretation of the figures reported by the USDA, respecting exactly the data, without intervening on them. Our views can be found in the weekly market report.
Below you can find information on global production, consumption and stocks for the following crops:
PRODUCTION
WASDE generated a global production figure that decreased by 0.76 million tons, from 789.02 million tons to 788.26 million tons. It’s a reduction driven by declining U.S. production amid persistent drought in Kansas, Texas and Oklahoma. In absolute terms, it is not a dramatic drop, but in the perspective of the 2023-2024 crop, it has a weight that reduces North American potential.
CONSUMPTION
WASDE generated a report indicating a drop in global consumption by 1.41 million tons, from 796.06 million tons to 794.65 million tons. India, Russia, Ukraine and China decrease domestic consumption and thus we have this weighting of consumption.
STOCKS
WASDE generates a stock level rising by 1.23 million tons from 265.05 to 266.28 million tons. It is a natural compensation against the background of low consumption generated by the countries listed above.
TRADE
WASDE indicates a level of trade increasing by 2.53 million tons from 212.71 million tons to 215.24 million tons. This is a direct result of the declines in wheat prices globally, which encourages Destinations to make purchases.
WASDE MAY 2023
PRODUCTION – CONSUMPTION – STOCKS – TRADE
-0.76 | -1.41 | +1.23 | +2.53
PRODUCTION
WASDE generates a globally rising projection of 5.70 million tons, moving from 1,144.50 to 1,150.20 million tons. Brazil is responsible for this surplus, with combined Safra + Safrinha production quoted at 130m tons, up 5m tons from the previous April 2023 report.
CONSUMPTION
WASDE indicates an increase in consumption by 4.88 million tons, going from 1,156.06 to 1,160.94 million tons. It is, moreover, natural that consumption will increase, especially in Brazil, due to the surplus crop that will find its use domestically or for export. Let’s not forget that Brazil is a very serious competitor to the US this sales season, at least for now.
STOCKS
WASDE generates a stock level rising by 2.06 million tons, from 295.35 million tons to 297.41 million tons. Consumption is increasing as a direct consequence of the increase in production and the decrease in the price of corn. Corn consumption is also projected to increase in the North American ethanol industry. All cumulatively lead to this increase in consumption.
TRADE
In terms of trade, we also have an increase in the transactional level, by 1.65 million tons, from 173.79 million tons to 175.44 million tons. This is generated by the combination of factors explained above. The result is a much lower raw material price level and increased production calculated for the 2022-2023 season.
WASDE MAY 2023
PRODUCTION – CONSUMPTION – STOCKS – TRADE
+5.70 | +4.88 | +2.06 | +1.65
PRODUCTION
WASDE generates a marginal increase in production related to the 2022/23 season of 0.78 million tons. There were no changes in the volume of the Argentine crop, which indicated the same values, according to WASDE, i.e., 27 million tons.
CONSUMPTION
WASDE indicates a consumption forecast down 0.96 million tons, related to a reduction in domestic uses in the US and a decrease in the cumulative domestic yield of several destinations. Thus, consumption drops from 365.83 million tons to 364.87 million tons.
STOCKS
WASDE indicates a level of stocks rising by 0.75 million tons, a direct consequence of much lower domestic use compared to the previous month. Thus, stocks increase from 100.29 million tons to 101.04 million tons.
TRADE
Soybean trade increases marginally from re-evaluations of export-import contracts related to traditional destinations. The increase is 0.37 million tons, going from 168 million to 168.37 million tons.
WASDE MAY 2023
PRODUCTION – CONSUMPTION – STOCKS – TRADE
+0.78 | -0.96 | +0.75 | +0.37
