Today’s special market report is dedicated to WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates), a market report of the United States Department of Agriculture.
The WASDE special report generated by AGRIColumn is only an interpretation of the figures reported by the USDA, respecting exactly the data, without intervening on them. Our views can be found in the weekly market report.
Below you can find information on global production, consumption and stocks for the following crops:
PROJECTED PRODUCTION 2023-2024
WASDE generated a production figure that exceeded the figure of 800 million tons, more precisely 800.2 million tons. Contributors to this 10.43 million month-on-month increase in the 2023-2024 projection are: Russia by 3.5 million tons to 85 million tons, the European Union by 1.5 million tons to 140.5 million tons, Ukraine 1 million tons to 17.5 million tons, India 3.5 million tons to 113.5 million tons, Turkey 0.5 million tons to 19, 5 million tons, the UK by 0.2 million tons to 15.7 million tons. The numbers speak for themselves. A production of 800 million tons globally means that the population will have enough to eat. 10.43 million month-on-month is a considerable advance and it can grow as some areas have sown spring wheat.
PROJECTED CONSUMPTION 2023-2024
WASDE generated a report indicating an increase in consumption by 4.44 million tons to 796.14 million tons. Here we have an increase in consumption in China of 2 million tons, Russia with an increase in consumption of 1 million tons, to list the countries with notable increases. Higher consumption is generated by a more generous crop, as in the case of Russia, or some problems in the case of China, which has gone through a difficult period due to floods.
STOCKS PROJECTION 2023-2024
WASDE generates a stock level rising by 6.37 million tons to 270.71 million tons. It is a high level of stocks from month to month and the responsible actors are the European Union with an increasing stock level of 1.5 million tons (result of stockpiling by farmers in EU countries), Russia with 1.5 million of tons (result of the export burdened by problems and sanctions).
TRADE PROJECTION 2023-2024
WASDE indicates a trade level increasing month-on-month by 2.9 million tons to 212.62 million tons. And here the main exponent is Russia, increased by 1 million tons to the level of 46.5 million tons, combined deep-water ports with shallow ones. The European Union also contributes 0.5 million in wheat trade to the level of 38.5 million tons.
WASDE JUNE 2023
PRODUCTION – CONSUMPTION – STOCKS – TRADE
+10.43 | +4.44 | +6.37 | +2.90
PROJECTED PRODUCTION 2023-2024
WASDE projects a global increase of 3.14 million tons to 1,222.77 tons. Ukraine gets a 2.5 million ton upgrade and is representative of the month-on-month increase in global production.
PROJECTED CONSUMPTION 2023-2024
WASDE also indicates an increase in consumption by 2.36 million tons to the level of 1,206.5 million tons. And in terms of consumption, the European Union is representative, with an increase of 2 million tons in consumption, from 79.5 million tons to 81.5 million tons.
STOCKS PROJECTION 2023-2024
WASDE is building stocks higher than the previous month by just 1.08 million tons to 313.98 million tons. It is not a big difference from month to month, the appearance of a balance in stocks remains. The US has a problem in stocks, which are increased due to a lack of export competitiveness, namely 0.9 million tons. The rest are minor offsets in certain countries.
TRADE PROJECTION 2023-2024
On the trade side, we also have an increase in the transactional level by 2.5 million tons to the level of 197.76 million tons. And this figure naturally comes from Ukraine, which rose to the level of 19 million tons, representing an increase of 2.5 million tons.
WASDE JUNE 2023
PRODUCTION – CONSUMPTION – STOCKS – TRADE
+3.14 | +2.36 | +1.08 | +2.5
PROJECTED PRODUCTION 2023-2024
WASDE projects a marginal increase in 2023/24 production of 0.11 million tons, so nothing substantial in this projection. For this increase, the EU is credited with 0.22 million tons, offset by other origins, but nothing of substance.
PROJECTED CONSUMPTION 2023-2024
WASDE indicates a consumption forecast falling by 0.4 million tons. Naturally, consumption is down in Argentina, which missed the production forecast, and thus its consumption is down by 0.5 million tons, offset by an increase of 0.1 million tons in the Southeast Asia area.
STOCKS PROJECTION 2023-2024
WASDE indicates a rising stock level of 0.84 million tons. Brazil rises in stocks by 0.45 million tons thanks to a richer crop. The European Union also increases in stocks by 0.24 million tons. So, we have the complete picture of the stocks with the increased values and the responsible countries. The differences are marginal.
TRADE PROJECTION 2023-2024
Soybean trade is quoted at the same level as it is effectively the 2023-2024 season projection and thus remains month-on-month at 172.41 million tons, unchanged.
WASDE JUNE 2023
PRODUCTION – CONSUMPTION – STOCKS – TRADE
+0.11 | -0.40 | +0.84 | +0.00
