Today’s special market report is dedicated to WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates), a market report of the United States Department of Agriculture.
The WASDE special report generated by AGRIColumn is only an interpretation of the figures reported by the USDA, respecting exactly the data, without intervening on them. Our views can be found in the weekly market report.
Below you can find information on global production, consumption and stocks for the following crops:
PRODUCTION
WASDE generated a global production figure identical to the previous month at 789.02 million tons, with only a minor increase of 0.08 million tons. Argentina decreased by 0.35 million tons in production, the European Union is indicated to decrease by 0.36 million tons. A marginal increase comes from China, but of course it is difficult to certify. So we have a static production ratio.
CONSUMPTION
WASDE generated a report indicating an increase in global consumption by 2.87 million tons to 796.06 million tons. The increase in wheat consumption is reflected in India, the European Union, as well as China, with part of the consumption being residual.
STOCKS
WASDE generates a stock level down by 2.15 million tons to 265.05 million tons. Logic suggests that stocks naturally fall due to increased consumption. So the high consumption is balanced by the reduction in stocks in Ukraine, India and the Philippines.
TRADE
WASDE indicates a month-on-month trade level down by 1.22 million tons. The European Union and Argentina are reducing their exports, and the increase in exports from Russia and Ukraine does not compensate for the decrease. China has an import level of 12 million tons of wheat, 2 million higher than the forecast, and thus equals the 1995/1996 season.
WASDE APRIL 2023
PRODUCTION – CONSUMPTION – STOCKS – TRADE
+0.08 | +2.87 | -2.15 | -1.22
PRODUCTION
WASDE generates a downward projection of global maize production by 3.02 million tons to 1,144.50 million tons. Naturally (how else?), the culprit is Argentina, which falls in the production forecast by 3 million tons. The EU, Serbia and Uruguay also decrease, but are partially offset by an increase for Russia. Maize production in the EU is down, mostly reflecting declines for Hungary, Italy and Bulgaria, which are partially offset by increases for Germany and Poland. Corn production in Russia is higher, from 14 million tons to 15.83 million tons, reflecting increases in both area and yield.
CONSUMPTION
WASDE shows consumption falling by just 0.69 million tons to 1,156.06 million tons, a sign that lower production is somewhat offset by existing stocks and thus the consumption penalty is marginally reduced.
STOCKS
WASDE generates stocks down 1.11 million tons to 295.35 million tons. But it is natural if we combine the decrease in production and consumption to reverberate in stocks, especially in countries like the European Union, Mexico and Ukraine, with minus 1 million tons in stocks. Increases in stocks are found in Brazil and Russia, naturally, the latter having been allocated an increase in production and productivity.
TRADE
In terms of trade, we also have a decrease of 0.92 million tons, coming from Argentina (how else, with that minus 3 million tons?), compensated by Ukraine, with a level of 2 million tons in plus, up to 25.5 million tons. And Russia is, in turn, allocated with a surplus of 0.8 million tons through increased production. For the month of April, we therefore have a Trade level of 173.79 million tons. The increases of Russia and Ukraine do not fully compensate for Argentina and other origins such as the European Union.
WASDE APRIL 2023
PRODUCTION – CONSUMPTION – STOCKS – TRADE
-3.02 | -0.69 | -1.11 | -0.92
PRODUCTION
WASDE generates a drop in global production by 5.51 million tons to 369.64 million tons. Here again the main nominee is Argentina, with a USDA-estimated production decline of 6 million tons, which takes Argentina’s production to 27 million tons (vs. 33 million tons in the March 2023 WASDE). A compensation comes from Brazil, which is indicated with 154 million tons, instead of 153 million tons, so an increase of 1 million tons.
CONSUMPTION
WASDE indicates a consumption forecast to decrease by 5.30 million tons, a direct consequence of the decrease in production. Invariably, consumption decreases in Argentina, first of all, by 3.25 million tons. Argentina is followed by China, with 1 million tons, from 113.30 to 112.30 million tons.
STOCKS
WASDE shows stocks rising by 0.28 million tons to 100.29 million tons. This increase in stocks is generated by the reduction of consumption in Argentina by 1.7 million tons. The fall in stocks is offset by China with an increase in consumption of 1 million tons and by Brazil with 1.21 million tons.
TRADE
Soybean trade decreases marginally by 0.40 million tons, marginal adjustment from revaluations of export contracts. Nothing to comment here, the trade margin remains at the value of 168 million tons, almost the same as the previous month.
WASDE APRIL 2023
PRODUCTION – CONSUMPTION – STOCKS – TRADE
-5.51 | -5.30 | +0.28 | -0.40
