Today’s special market report is dedicated to WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates), a market report of the United States Department of Agriculture.
The WASDE special report generated by AGRIColumn is only an interpretation of the figures reported by the USDA, respecting exactly the data, without intervening on them. Our views can be found in the weekly market report.
Below you can find information on global production, consumption and stocks for the following crops:
PRODUCTION
WASDE generated an increase in global production of 2.49 million tons compared to the previous report. We thus have a global level of production increased from 781.31 million tons to 783.8 million tons. Among the countries that contributed to the global increase, we list Australia, which was increased in production from 36.6 million tons to 38 million tons, 1.4 million tons more than the previous report. Russia, in turn, received 1 million tons and is quoted at the level of 92 million tons. We can also add Brazil to the list of countries that received an upgrade, with an increase of 0.4 million tons, from 9.5 to 9.9 million tons. So, we have the second consecutive month of growth in wheat production globally.
CONSUMPTION
WASDE generated a report indicating an increase in global consumption of 1.42 million tons. The positive difference compared to the previous month is generated by Canada, the European Union and Russia, which increase their residual, feed, and industrial consumption. The increase in consumption in the three areas listed softens the shock of the decline in consumption in Bangladesh. In short, the European Union increases consumption by 0.75 million tons, from 108.25 million tons to 109 million tons, Russia by 0.5 million tons, from 45 to 45.5 million tons, Canada with 1 million tons, from 8.55 to 9.55 million tons.
Global trade rose by 1.3 million tons to 212.9 million tons on higher export figures from Russia, the European Union and Canada. Imports increase in China by 0.5 million tons, up to 10 million tons. Marginally, with 0.2 million tons, the Philippines and South Korea also enter the import statistics. And on the list of those reducing imports, we have Bangladesh at the top, with a decrease of 0.7 million tons, from 6 to 5.3 million tons.
STOCKS
WASDE generates a rising stock level of 0.95 million tons. The increase comes from Australia, which raises stocks from 4.25 million tons to 5.13 million tons, a surplus of 0.88 million tons. The difference and offset comes from a group of countries marginally adjusting their numbers. In exact figures, we therefore have an increase from 268.39 to 269.34 million tons.
WASDE FEBRUARY 2023
PRODUCTION – CONSUMPTION – STOCKS
+2.49 | +1.42 | +0.95
PRODUCTION
WASDE projects a decline in global maize production of 4.57 million tons from the previous month’s level of 1,155.93 million tons to 1,151.36 million tons. The most pronounced decrease is accounted for by Argentina, which fell by 5 million tons from 52 to 47 million tons in production, based on production and area. Argentina’s decline is somewhat offset by a 0.2-million-ton increase in Philippine corn production from 7.9 to 8.1 million tons.
As for exports, they are increasing in Brazil, which is credited with an increase of 2.5 million tons, from 48.5 million tons to 51 million tons. Ukraine’s export level is also raised by 2 million tons, from 20.5 to 22.5 million tons. The decrease in exports to Argentina by 5 million tons, from 37 to 33 million tons, comes as a natural consequence of the decrease in production of this South American country. In total, global corn trade increases from 181 million tons to 182.36 million tons, representing an increase of 1.36 million tons.
CONSUMPTION
WASDE shows us a decrease in consumption by 3.1 million tons, from a level of 1,165.47 to 1,162.37 million tons. The decrease in consumption is attributed to Argentina by 2 million tons, from 14 to 12 million tons. Brazil is also down by 3 million tons, from 76 to 73 million tons. Consumption also decreases in Canada by 0.3 million tons. Instead, it increases consumption in the European Union by 1.9 million tons, from 76.1 to 78 million tons. Other declines and marginal increases are seen in Indonesia, which falls by 0.3 million tons, while Vietnam increases consumption by 0.2 million tons.
STOCKS
WASDE generates a lower level of stocks compared to the previous month by 1.14 million tons, going from a level of 296.42 to 295.28 million tons. It is, overall, a marginal decline in global corn stocks. Credited with declines in stocks is Ukraine, down 2 million tons from a level of 5.4 to 3.4 million tons, mainly due to decay of the unharvested crop. Brazil and Canada partially offset the fall in stocks in Ukraine, with Brazil adding 0.3 million tons and Canada adding 0.3 million tons. The rest of the stock differences in the negative sense are rounded to a group of cumulative countries.
WASDE FEBRUARY 2023
PRODUCTION – CONSUMPTION – STOCKS
-4.57 | -3.10 | -1.14
PRODUCTION
WASDE generates a decline in global production of 5 million tons, from the level of the previous report of 388 and reaching 383 million tons. It is almost entirely the effect of Argentina, which is down in production from a level of 45.5 to 41 million tons, i.e., 4.5 million tons. Ukraine, for its part, is reduced by 0.4 million tons. Other areas that are credited see marginal increases, along with marginal decreases, leading to a final minus 5 million tons of global production.
CONSUMPTION
WASDE indicates a consumption forecast down 3.08 million tons from 379.49 the previous month to 376.41. China cuts its processing by 1 million tons, from 95 to 94 million tons. India, the European Union, and Paraguay complete the picture of declines in global consumption, along with Argentina, as a direct consequence of the decline in production.
Global trade is also completed in this picture with a decrease in imports into the European Union of 0.5 million tons. Argentina raises the import level by 1.25 million tons, reaching 6.25 million tons.
STOCKS
WASDE shows stocks down 1.49 million tons from 103.52 last month to 102.03 million tons. The decrease is allocated to Brazil by 1.23 million tons, from 33.46 to 32.22 million tons. Argentina also decreases in terms of stocks, from 23.45 to 22.4 million tons. The declines in stocks are offset by a 1mt increase in stocks in China from 31.33mt to 32.33mt.
WASDE JANUARY 2023
PRODUCTION – CONSUMPTION – STOCKS
-5.00 | -3.08 | -1.49
