Today’s special market report is dedicated to WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates), a market report of the United States Department of Agriculture.
The WASDE special report generated by AGRI Column is only an interpretation of the figures reported by the USDA, respecting exactly the data, without intervening on them. Our views can be found in the weekly market report.
Below you can find information on global production, consumption and stocks for the following crops:
PRODUCTION
WASDE produced a downward projection for global wheat production from 783.92 million tons in the previous report to 781.7 million tons. We therefore have a global decrease of 2.22 million tons in wheat production. We find the decreases accounted for by the USA and Argentina, partly compensated by an increase in production in the European Union, which is revised positively by 2.7 million tons attributed to Germany and Poland.
CONSUMPTION
WASDE projected global consumption to decline by 0.85 million tons to 790.17 million tons, due to declines in food, seed and industrial products consumption that were greater than increases in consumption of feed and residual use.
World trade fell by 0.6 million tons to 208.3 million tons due to reduced exports by the United States and Argentina. Higher EU exports failed to offset the reduction in exports from the two countries mentioned above.
STOCKS
WASDE generates a stock level down 1 mil. tons from last month. Thus, the global stock level reaches 267.54 million tons. This aspect is due to the USA, which has decreased the level of production.
WASDE OCTOBER 2022
PRODUCTION – CONSUMPTION – STOCKS
-2.22 | -0.85 | -1.02
PRODUCTION
WASDE generates global output down 3.84 million tons, from a level of 1,172.58 million tons in September to 1,168.74 million tons following the current report.
All in all, we have a global production of 1,172.58 million tons, down 7.03 million tons from last month when we recorded 1,179.61 million tons. The main areas affected by the decreases are France, Romania, Hungary and Bulgaria in the European Union area, as well as a marginal decrease in the USA, following the reassessment of productivity per hectare. India partially offsets these declines with higher production (Rabi and Kharif).
CONSUMPTION
WASDE indicates a decrease in global consumption by 5.63 million tons. Starting from 1,180.18 million tons last month, we now have a forecast consumption level of 1,174.55 million tons. Consumption is falling due to lower industrial use, particularly in the US, amid declining ethanol production. US exports are also falling due to lower demand and logistics infrastructure problems (and remember here the blockage on the Mississippi River, where about 2,000 barges are stuck due to low water levels). Maize exports are increased for Ukraine and India, but decreased for the United States and Serbia. For 2022/23, corn imports are reduced for Iran, Japan and Vietnam, but increased for the EU and the United States.
STOCKS
WASDE projects a stock level down 3.34 million tons, from the September 2022 projection of 304.53 million tons and falling to 301.19 million tons. Much of the lack of stock we can pass to the US account. Foreign corn ending stocks are thus declining, mainly reflecting reductions for China and Ukraine.
WASDE OCTOBER 2022
PRODUCTION – CONSUMPTION – STOCKS
-3.84 | -5.63 | -3.34
PRODUCTION
WASDE generates soybean production increasing by 1.22 million tons, starting from a level of 389.77 million tons in September and reaching a value of 390.99 million tons in October. Soybean production is revised down in the US due to a lower yield per hectare, but is offset by Brazil’s forecast, which is indicated at 152 million tons.
CONSUMPTION
WASDE indicates an increasing consumption forecast due to access to a lower price level and implicitly better profit margins on behalf of processors. Thus, we have an increase in consumption by 2.56 million tons to the level of 380.24 million tons globally. But there is also a potential negative in consumption, and this may come from China and its prolonged lockdown, which is increasing during this period.
STOCKS
WASDE indicates an increasing level of stocks compared to the previous month, from 389.77 million tons to a level of 390.99 million tons. The positive difference is 1.6 million tons and comes from Brazil.
WASDE OCTOBER 2022
PRODUCTION – CONSUMPTION – STOCKS
+1.22 | +2.56 | +1.60
