Today’s special market report is dedicated to WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates), a market report of the United States Department of Agriculture.
The WASDE special report generated by AGRI Column is only an interpretation of the figures reported by the USDA, respecting exactly the data, without intervening on them. Our views can be found in the weekly market report.
Below you can find information on global production, consumption and stocks for the following crops:
PRODUCTION
WASDE generated an increase in global production by 0.72 million tons, from 780.59 tons to 781.31 million tons. The increase comes from the reassessment of EU production by 0.4 million tons more than in December 2022, from 134.3 million tons to 134.7 million tons and an increase of 0.5 million tons from Ukraine, which increases in production from 20.5 million tons to 21 million tons. The decrease in production comes from China, by 0.3 million tons, from 138 million tons to 137.7 million tons. Not a word or figure on the growth in Australia or the reassessment of Russia.
CONSUMPTION
WASDE generated a report indicating an increase in global consumption by 0.21 million tons, from 789.53 million tons to 789.74 million tons. It is effectively a marginal increase with no effect. Global trade was increased by 0.8 million tons to 211.6 million tons, with Ukraine and the European Union being the growth factors that offset the decrease in trade originating in India.
STOCKS
WASDE generates a rising stock level of 1.06 million tons. Thus, stocks reached the level of 268.39 million tons. Countries contributing to the increase in stocks are the EU, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and India, which offset the declines in stocks in Saudi Arabia and Iran.
WASDE JANUARY 2023
PRODUCTION – CONSUMPTION – STOCKS
+0.72 | +0.21 | +1.06
PRODUCTION
WASDE generates a downward projection for global maize production of 5.93 million tons, from an estimated level of 1,161.86 million tons to 1,155.93 million tons. So, we have two consecutive months of decline in global corn production. Of the 4 million decrease, 3 million tons are attributed to Argentina and 1 million tons to Brazil. A further 5 million tons decrease came from the US, from 353.86 million tons to 348.75 million tons. But China compensates with an extra 3 million tons, which makes the impact much smaller. However, China remains opaque on the level of accuracy.
CONSUMPTION
WASDE indicates a decrease in consumption by 5.08 million tons. From a level of 1,170.55 million tons to 1,165.47 million tons. The level of consumption falls implicitly in the countries of origin, which have suffered degradations in production. We list here Brazil, with 1 million tons, the USA, with 1 million tons, and other cumulative countries, which lead to a decrease in consumption. But the compensation comes from China, which increases consumption, having a higher production by exactly 3 million tons.
STOCKS
WASDE generates stocks lower than the previous month by 1.98 million tons, from 298.4 to 296.42 million tons. These reductions are allocated to Brazil (1 million tons), Ukraine (1.5 million tons) and other countries cumulatively (0.3 million tons). But there are compensating stock increases, such as the 1.2 million tons in China.
WASDE JANUARY 2023
PRODUCTION – CONSUMPTION – STOCKS
-5.93 | -5.08 | -1.98
PRODUCTION
WASDE generates a drop in global production by 3.16 million tons, from 391.17 million tons to 388.01 million tons. And in terms of decreases, we have Argentina, with a minus of 4 million tons, from 49.5 million tons to 45.5 million tons. The USA also decreases by 1.9 million tons, from 118.27 to 116.38 million tons. Brazil compensates with an increase in the forecast of 1 million tons, from 152, to 153 million tons. China, for its part, brings an increase of about 2 million tons in production.
CONSUMPTION
WASDE indicates a consumption forecast falling by 1.39 million tons, from last month’s level of 380.88 million tons, to 379.49 million tons. We have decreases in consumption in Argentina of 1.25 million tons, in China of 1 million tons, offset by a higher consumption in Brazil of 0.75 million tons.
STOCKS
WASDE shows stocks rising by 0.81 million tons from 102.71 million tons to 103.52 million tons. Brazil has a higher level of stocks by 1.75 million tons compared to last month. The US is down 0.2 million tons, and other countries combined are down 0.46 million tons.
WASDE JANUARY 2023
PRODUCTION – CONSUMPTION – STOCKS
-3.16 | -1.39 | +0.81
