Today’s special market report is dedicated to WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates), a market report of the United States Department of Agriculture.
The WASDE special report generated by AGRI Column is only an interpretation of the figures reported by the USDA, respecting exactly the data, without intervening on them. Our views can be found in the weekly market report.
Below you can find information on global production, consumption and stocks for the following crops:
WASDE generated an upward projection for global wheat production from 779.6 million tons in the previous report to 783.92 million tons. We therefore have a global increase of 4.32 million tons in wheat production. The most important increases can be found in the account of Russia, which has increased its production level by 3 million tons to the level of 91 million tons, excluding Crimea. The previous month, Russia was quoted at 88 million tons. Ukraine is credited with 1 million tons more, from 19.5 million tons to 20.5 million tons.
WASDE generated a consumption projection of 791 million tons, up by 2.42 million tons. The consumption projection is increasing, due to the intensification of feed and waste consumption in Russia and the European Union.
Global trade increases from 208.6 million tons to 208.9 million tons, an increase of 0.3 million tons. We have a stable global consumption.
WASDE generates an increasing stocks level compared to the previous month. From a level of 267.34 million tons, stocks increase by 1.22 million tons, to the level of 268.56 million tons.
WASDE SEPTEMBER 2022
PRODUCTION – CONSUMPTION – STOCKS
+4.32 | +2.42 | +1.22
WASDE projects a decline in global corn production for June. This decrease is mainly generated by the USA, which decreased the yield per hectare from 175.4 bu /acre, i.e. 11 tons/ha, to 172.5 bu /acre, i.e. 10.82 tons/hectare. Thus, we have a US production level of 354.2 million tons versus AUG22, when we had an estimated level of 364.73 million tons. It is a minus of 10.5 million tons, to which, we must say, also contributes a minus of 400,000 hectares of corn that disappear from the American crop. And American stocks decrease by 4.3 million tons. In contrast, the EU is down, according to WASDE, by only 1.5 million tons, while Ukraine compensates the EU by an additional 1.5 million tons, to 31.5 million tons.
All in all, we have a global production of 1,172.58 million tons down 7.03 million tons from last month when we recorded 1,179.61 million tons.
WASDE indicates a decrease in global consumption by 4.59 million tons. Starting from 1,184.77 million tons last month, we now have a forecast consumption level of 1,180.18 million tons. Consumption is falling due to a potential substitution of corn for feed wheat and reduced production in the US and EU.
WASDE projects a stock level down 2.15 million tons from the August 2022 projection of 306.68 million tons and falling to 304.53 million toes. Much of the lack of stock we can pass to the US account.
WASDE AUGUST 2022
PRODUCTION – CONSUMPTION – STOCKS
-7.03 | -4.59 | -2.15
WASDE results in soybean production falling by 3 million tons. Starting from a level of 392.79 million tons in August and reaching a value of 389.77 million tons in September. The decline comes from the degradation of US per hectare productivity, which falls from 51.9 bu/acre to 59.5 bu/acre.
WASDE points to a marginally lower consumption forecast of 0.57 million tons due to a slower pace of Chinese supply generated by the lockdown which penalizes consumption at the population level.
WASDE shows stocks down 2.49 million tons from last month, from 101.41 million tons in August to 98.92 million tons, amid lower stocks in the US and China.