Today’s special market report is dedicated to WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates), a market report of the United States Department of Agriculture.
The WASDE special report generated by AGRI Column is only an interpretation of the figures reported by the USDA, respecting exactly the data, without intervening on them. Our views can be found in the weekly market report published earlier.
Below you can find information on global production, consumption and stocks for the following crops:
WASDE generated a global decline of 1.4 million tons. So last month we had a production level of 774.83 million tons and we find ourselves in June with a volume of 773.43 million tons. According to WASDE, the main decreases in production are in the European Union, which is down 0.4 million tons, from a level of 136.5 million to a level of 136.1 million tons. Compared to last season, we have a decrease of 2.3 million tons in production. India is down by just 2.5 million tons, starting at 108.5 million tons and reporting by WASDE at 106 million tons. Compared to last year, however, the decrease is 3.6 million tons. Compared to June, Russia is up by 1 million tons, up to 81 million tons, up 5.8 million tons from the same season last month. The United States reports an increase of 0.2 million tons to 47.3 million tons.
WASDE generated a consumption projection of 785.99 million tons, down 1.53 million tons. Estimates take into account lower overall consumption due to difficulty in supply. Extremely high commodity prices also reduce global consumption. India is an indicator in this regard. The reduction in production directly affects consumption. Sri Lanka also has a negative contribution to consumption due to the extreme problems it faces. In addition to the two examples, Argentina participates indirectly, with a reduction in industrial and feed consumption.
Global trade is declining, but not with significant values, but only 0.3 million tons. This is due to the low level of exports from India, partially offset by volumes from Kazakhstan and Russia. In terms of exports, Russia is credited with a level of 40 million tons, which is a very important increase, if we refer to the level of the 2021-2022 season. The level of global wheat trade is set for June at 204.59 million tons, compared to 204.89 million tons last month.
WASDE is generating a declining stock level compared to last month. We have a difference of only 0.17 million tons, starting from 267.02 million tons and reaching 266.85 million tons. We have the lowest global stock volume in six years. However, compared to the same period last year, the negative difference is 12.55 million tons.
WASDE JUNE 2022
PRODUCTION – CONSUMPTION – STOCKS
-1.4 | -1.53 | -0.17
WASDE was expected to increase global corn production by June. Last month we had an estimate of 1180.72 million tons and today we find a production that was increased by 5.09 million tons, up to 1,185.81 million tons. This extremely large increase in global maize production comes from Ukraine, which has managed to sow much more than the forecast generated by the ongoing war on its territory. About 5.5 million tons is the level at which Ukraine was raised. But compared to last year, global corn production is in deficit by 30.26 million tons. In June 2021, production was set at 1,216.07 million tons, and in June 2022 it is estimated at 1,185.81 million tons.
WASDE shows an increase in global consumption of 1.31 million tons. Starting from 1,184.97 million tons last month, we now have a projected consumption level of 1,186.28 million tons. There are no major changes to this global parameter compared to last month.
WASDE is generating an increasing level of stocks. The European Union is characterized by higher imports, which are offset by reduced imports into Morocco, Jordan and Peru. The level of stocks thus reaches 310.45 million tons, increasing from 305.13 million tons, i.e., with a volume of 5.32 million tons. The increase is due to Ukraine, which increases its level of production and thus the difference in production reaches the volume of stocks. But by direct comparison with the same month last year, we have a deficit of only 0.32 million tons, insignificant, we could say.
WASDE JUNE 2022
PRODUCTION – CONSUMPTION – STOCKS
+5.09 | +1.31 | +5.32
WASDE generates a soybean production increase of 0.68 million tons, from a level of 394.69 million tons last month to 395.37 million tons this month. The marginal result is generated only by production grants in the two Americas, on the one hand, Brazil and Argentina, and on the other, the USA. Compared to a year ago in the same period, we have a very high level of production. The difference between the years is plus 43.38 million tons
WASDE indicates a 0.42 million tons higher consumption forecast. It is not a substantial increase, but it is due to a much more sustained trade flow by the US and China. So we have a consumption level of 377.86 million tons generated by USDA for June 2022, increasing from 377.44 million tons. From year to year, however, the level of consumption increased by 13.21 million tons, compared to the same period.
WASDE indicates a stock level 0.86 million tons higher than the previous month. Starting at 99.60 in May, we reached 100.46 million tons for the current month. The higher level comes from higher starting stocks in Brazil and Argentina due to the re-evaluation of production. For example, last season, Brazil harvested another 1 million tons from much better production in the Mato Grosso region.