Today’s special market report is dedicated to WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates), a market report of the United States Department of Agriculture.
The WASDE special report generated by AGRI Column is only an interpretation of the figures reported by the USDA, respecting exactly the data, without intervening on them. Our views can be found in the weekly market report.
Below you can find information on global production, consumption and stocks for the following crops:
PRODUCTION
WASDE generated a projection up from the previous month by about 1 million tons. Thus, the global production according to November 2022 is 782.68 million tons. Argentina is downgraded by 2 million tons from the level of 17.5 million to 15.5 million tons. The EU is down in terms of production by 0.45 million tons, to the level of 134.3 million tons, including durum wheat. The countries that balanced the deficit left by Argentina and the EU are Australia (with a production increase of 1.5 million tons, from the level of 33 million tons to 34.5 million tons) and the United Kingdom (with an increase production of 0.8 million tons, from 14.6 to 15.4 million tons). Kazakhstan is up in terms of volume by 1 million tons, from 13 to 14 million tons.
CONSUMPTION
WASDE generated a projection of an increase in global consumption by 1 million tons, from 790.17 to 791.17 million tons. The European Union increases its consumption by 0.5 million tons, from 108.75 to 109.25 million tons. In contrast, Bangladesh lowers its consumption level by 0.9 million tons. India also lowers its domestic consumption by 0.5 million tons. We also have marginal increases in consumption in Kazakhstan by 0.15 million tons and the UK by 0.2 million tons. Global exports are also up marginally by 0.32 million tons, from 208.33 to 208.65 million tons. Argentina lowers its export level from 12 to 10 million tons. Australia increases export volume from 25 to 26 million tons. Kazakhstan also increases its export volume from 8 to 9 million tons. Great Britain also contributes to the global export balance with a surplus of 0.3 million tons.
STOCKS
WASDE reports a stock level rising by 0.28 million tons globally from 267.54 to 267.82 million tons. USA decreases marginally by 0.14 million tons. The EU decreases the level of stocks by 0.45 million tons. India, on the other hand, increases the level of stocks by 0.5 million tons. Australia also increases stock levels by 0.5 million tons. Kazakhstan decreases marginally by 0.15 million tons, and Great Britain also decreases by 0.1 million tons.
WASDE NOVEMBER 2022
PRODUCTION – CONSUMPTION – STOCKS
+0.98 | +1.00 | +0.28
NEUTRAL
PRODUCTION
WASDE generates production falling globally by only 0.35 million tons, thus marginal, from 1,168.74 to 1,168.39 million tons. This month’s balance is made up of a US production increase of 0.89 million tons to 353.84 million tons. South Africa is down 0.6 million tons to 16.7 million tons. Another important decrease is in the EU, with 1.4 million tons, from 56.2 to 54.8 million tons. And in the countries of Southeast Asia, we see a decrease in production by 0.4 million tons. The negative difference of 1.15 million tons in the balance between reduced production and increased production comes from the stocks at the beginning of the month.
CONSUMPTION
WASDE indicates an increasing consumption of 0.75 million tons globally. The USA is part of the increase in consumption by 0.64 million tons. Canada also contributes to the increase in consumption by 0.6 million tons, from 14.4 to 15 million tons. On the other hand, the EU decreases consumption by 1.4 million tons (from 76.1 to 74.7 million tons) due to reduced production. Southeast Asian countries also decrease their consumption accordingly by 0.8 million tons. Global exports decreased by 0.3 million tons, from 183.04 to 182.74 million tons through South Africa.
STOCKS
WASDE generates a stock level reduced by 0.43 million tons from 301.19 to 300.76 million tons. The US, on the other hand, increases the level of corn stocks by 0.25 million tons. South Africa lowers stocks by 0.3 million tons. The rest of the difference in the negative stocks balance is comprised of marginal declines in Mexico, Southeast Asia and China.
WASDE OCTOBER 2022
PRODUCTION – CONSUMPTION – STOCKS
-0.35 | +0.75 | -0.43
NEUTRAL
PRODUCTION
WASDE reports soybean production down 0.46 million tons from 390.99 to 390.53 million tons. The US is up in terms of production by 0.89 million tons, from 117.38 to 118.27 million tons. In contrast, Argentina is down in production by 1.5 million tons, from 51 to 49.5 million tons. With a few more marginal production declines, we cumulatively arrive at the decline stated above.
CONSUMPTION
WASDE indicates a well-balanced consumption forecast, with only 0.07 million tons lower. Thus, the US increases its consumption by 0.33 million tons thanks to higher production. Brazil also increases consumption by 0.25 million tons. Argentina balances the consumption balance with a decrease of 0.75 million tons. Global exports decrease marginally by only 0.07 million tons.
STOCKS
WASDE shows stocks rising by 1.65 million tons from 100.52 to 102.17 million tons. The US reports an increase in stocks by 0.55 million tons. The EU increases the level of stocks by 0.17 million tons. China also increases the level of stocks by 1.04 million tons due to the lockdown. Stocks are marginally down in Brazil, Southeast Asia and Mexico.
WASDE NOVEMBER 2022
PRODUCTION – CONSUMPTION – STOCKS
-0.46 | -0.07 | +1.65
NEUTRAL
