Today’s special market report is dedicated to WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates), a market report of the United States Department of Agriculture.
The WASDE special report generated by AGRIColumn is only an interpretation of the figures reported by the USDA, respecting exactly the data, without intervening on them. Our views can be found in the weekly market report.
Below you can find information on global production, consumption and stocks for the following crops:
PRODUCTION
WASDE generated an increase in global production by 5.14 million tons, from 783.8 million tons to 788.94 million tons. Russia and Australia are the main Origins raising production levels globally, with Russia credited with an additional 1 million tons to 92 million tons and Australia being lifted by the USDA to 38 million tons, an increase of 1.4 million tons. Brazil also receives a bonus of 0.4 million tons, from 9.5 to 9.9 million tons.
CONSUMPTION
WASDE generated a report indicating an increase in global consumption by 2.13 million tons to 793.19 million tons. The increase in wheat consumption is reflected in Russia, where we have 0.5 million tons of growth in consumption, up to 45.5 million tons. The EU increases consumption by 0.75 million tons, up to 109 million tons.
Global trade increased by 1 million tons to 213.93 million tons. Thus, the export is visualized increasing in the European Union by 0.5 million tons, up to 37 million tons, in Ukraine by 0.5 million tons, up to 13.5 million tons, in Russia by 0.5 million tons, up to the level of 43.5 million tons and in Australia with 1 million. tons, up to 29.5 million tons. A reduction in export is observed in Canada, with 1 million tons, up to the value of 25 million tons.
Regarding imports, China raises the import level by 0.5 million tons, up to 10 million tons. The European Union increases the import value by 1 million tons, up to the level of 9 million tons. Other marginal import increases came from the Philippines and South Korea, each up 0.2 million tons.
Imports decrease in Bangladesh by 0.7 million tons to 5.3 million tons.
STOCKS
WASDE generates a stock level down 2.14 million tons to 267.2 million tons. The decline is mainly driven by China auctioning off imported stocks of wheat for human and feed use.
WASDE MARCH 2023
PRODUCTION – CONSUMPTION – STOCKS
+5.14 | +2.03 | -2.14
PRODUCTION
WASDE generates a downward projection of global maize production by 3.84 million tons to 1,147.52 million tons. Argentina is first on the list, naturally, with a dramatic reduction of 7 million tons to 40 million tons. Marginal increases in other areas fail to cover the deficit created by Argentina. Ukraine, Brazil are maintained at the same level as last month, 27 million tons and 125 million tons, respectively.
CONSUMPTION
WASDE shows us a decrease in consumption by 5.62 million tons, from a level of 1,162.37 million tons, to a level of 1,156.75 million tons. The decrease is naturally attributed to Argentina, which reduces its export by 7 million tons implicitly, up to the value of 28 million tons. Ukraine, on the other hand, is raised as an export level by 1 million tons, up to the value of 23.5 million tons. China’s consumption remains unchanged, so the decline in Argentina’s production is offset by the reduction in Argentina’s export-generated consumption. The US is disappointing, with poor export performance and this is directly impacting the market.
STOCKS
WASDE generates stocks higher by 1.18 million tons to 296.46 million tons. This is driven by higher US stocks of around 1.9 million tons, offset by other origins. But the weak performance of the US is taking its toll on the market, considering the intention to seed a higher area in the US for the 2023-2024 season.
WASDE MARCH 2023
PRODUCTION – CONSUMPTION – STOCKS
-3.84 | -5.62 | +1.18
PRODUCTION
WASDE generates a drop in global production by 7.86 million tons to 375.15 million tons. Naturally, everything falls on Argentina, how else? The latter is decreased by 8 million tons, to the level of 33 million tons. This is an extremely large drop from the initial forecast of 48 million tons. Otherwise, globally, there are no major changes.
CONSUMPTION
WASDE indicates a consumption forecast falling by 5.28 million tons, driven by lower production in Argentina. Appearances lead to future imports to Argentina, from neighboring countries, for processing and consumption (by about 1 million tons, up to the level of 7.25 million tons). Argentina’s domestic consumption decreases by about 4.5 million tons, a direct consequence of the reduced production and thus outlines the negative figure of 5.3 million tons decrease in global consumption. China, for its part, decreases domestic processing and implicitly consumption by 2 million tons, to the level of 92 million tons.
STOCKS
WASDE indicates a 2 million tons decline in stocks, a direct consequence of the decline in global production offset by consumption, the result being predictable. We have a stock of 100 million tons, which decreases by the following exponents: USA by 0.4 million tons, Argentina by 2.6 million tons, Brazil by 0.68 million tons. The offset comes from China, which increases stock levels by 1.95 million tons.
WASDE MARCH 2023
PRODUCTION – CONSUMPTION – STOCKS
-7.86 | -5.28 | -2.02
