Today’s special market report is dedicated to WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates), a market report of the United States Department of Agriculture.
The WASDE special report generated by AGRI Column is only an interpretation of the figures reported by the USDA, respecting exactly the data, without intervening on them. Our views can be found in the weekly market report.
Below you can find information on global production, consumption and stocks for the following crops:
PRODUCTION
WASDE generated a drop in global production by 2.09 million tons, from 782.68 million tons to 780.59 million tons. The main country that generated decreases is Argentina by 3 million tons, from 15.5 million tons to 12.5 million tons. Canada generated a significant drop in production of 1.18 million tons, stemming from the difference between the September satellite estimate and the November statistic. Thus, Canada reduces its production from 35 million tons to 33.82 million tons. These declines are partially offset by Australia’s record crop of 36.6 million tons, up 2.1 million tons.
CONSUMPTION
WASDE generated a report indicating a drop in global consumption by 1.64 million tons, from 791.17 million tons to 789.53 million tons. The decrease comes from lower use for livestock and industrial use in the European Union and Ukraine. Trade increases by 2.2 million tons compared to last month, to the level of 210.9 million tons. This is due to higher export levels from Australia (which increases export levels by 1.5 million tons to a record level of 27.5 million tons), Ukraine (+1.5 million tons, to at the level of 12.5 million tons), the EU and Russia. These higher export levels cover the decline in Argentina’s exports, which fall by 2.5 million tons to 7.5 million tons.
STOCKS
WASDE generates a declining stock level of 0.49 million tons. Thus, stocks reach the level of 267.33 million tons. Countries reducing stocks are: Russia, Canada, Argentina and Ukraine. The reductions in these nominated countries are covered by the increases generated by the EU and Australia. In essence, there are no major differences at the level of stocks, and the ratio Production vs. Consumption is in balance calibrated also by the marginal decrease in stocks.
WASDE NOVEMBER 2022
PRODUCTION – CONSUMPTION – STOCKS
-2.09 | -1.64 | -0.49
NEUTRAL
PRODUCTION
WASDE generates a downward projection for global maize production. Production decreases by 6.53 million tons, from 1,168.39 million tons to 1,161.86 million tons. The main decrease is due to Ukraine, which is degraded in production from the level of 31.5 million tons to 27 million tons. Russia, in turn, is degraded by 1 million tons, from 15 million to 14 million tons. The remaining difference is shared between the EU and Vietnam.
CONSUMPTION
WASDE shows consumption falling by 4.75 million tons, from an estimated level of 1,175.3 million tons to 1,170.55 million tons. The level of consumption falls by default in the countries of origin that have suffered production degradations. Exports are estimated to be higher in Ukraine, but lower in the US, Russia and the EU. Corn imports are rising in the EU but falling in Canada, Iran, South Korea, Mexico, Vietnam, the Philippines and Turkey.
STOCKS
WASDE generates a lower level of stocks than the previous month by 2.36 million tons, from 300.76 to 298.4 million tons. These reductions are allocated to Ukraine, Paraguay, Vietnam and Mexico. Overall, lower production is offset by lower consumption levels and, implicitly, lower stock levels.
WASDE DECEMBER 2022
PRODUCTION – CONSUMPTION – STOCKS
-6.53 | -4.75 | -2.36
NEUTRAL
PRODUCTION
WASDE generates an increase in global production levels by 0.64 million tons, from 390.53 million tons to 391.17 million tons. The level of production thus increases in Ukraine and India.
CONSUMPTION
WASDE indicates a consumption forecast increasing by 0.71 million tons, from 380.17 million tons to 380.88 million tons. Consumption is increasing in Paraguay and exporting countries.
STOCKS
WASDE shows stocks rising by 0.54 million tons from 102.17 million tons to 102.71 million tons. Stocks are rising in the EU, Brazil and Paraguay. Analyzing production versus consumption, the indication of equilibrium is clear.
WASDE DECEMBER 2022
PRODUCTION – CONSUMPTION – STOCKS
+0.64 | +0.71 | +0.54
NEUTRAL
